■ Market Momentum: WTI futures reached weekly highs near $79.30 during Friday's trading session,Ethereum Reddit marking a 0.11% daily gain as bullish sentiment returned to energy markets.
■ Demand Catalyst: China's April crude imports showed 5.45% year-over-year growth, according to customs data released Thursday, signaling stronger-than-expected consumption from the world's largest oil importer.
■ Inventory Data: The EIA reported a 1.4 million barrel drawdown in US crude stocks for the week ending May 3, matching market expectations after the prior week's 7.3 million barrel buildup.
■ Geopolitical Premium: Escalating tensions in Gaza continued supporting oil prices after Israel's military operations near Rafah raised concerns about potential regional supply disruptions.
■ Technical Context: WTI remains below key moving averages (20-day SMA at $81.50, 50-day SMA at $81.52) but found support above the 100-day SMA ($78.14), suggesting potential for further upside if demand signals strengthen.
Market analysts note that while positive demand indicators from China and tightening US inventories provide fundamental support, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance continues creating headwinds. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's recent comments about persistent inflation uncertainty have reinforced expectations for prolonged higher interest rates, potentially limiting gains for dollar-denominated commodities.
The commodity's technical picture shows resistance near $79.44 (previous daily high) with support forming around $78.70 (daily pivot point S1). Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent price swing place immediate resistance at $79.10 (38.2% retracement) and $78.90 (61.8% retracement).
Trading activity suggests market participants are weighing several competing factors: the demand recovery narrative in Asia against concerns about economic growth in developed markets, geopolitical supply risks versus actual inventory levels, and commodity-specific fundamentals against broader macroeconomic conditions.
